Tourney Trials Influence Sunday

The nightmare scenario for "on the bubble" at-large candidates hit with full force Monday night. Any more "upsetting" days like that and a lot of teams that felt decent about their at-large hopes a few days ago are going to be despondent Sunday night.

How many basketball coaches, players and fans nearly had meltdowns after seeing that the University of South Alabama and Gonzaga teams lost in their respective conference tournament games Monday night?

The upsets of the Jaguars (to Middle Tennessee in a Sun Belt semifinal) and the Bulldogs (to San Diego in the West Coast Conference final) effectively pulls two slots out of the pool of “available” at-large selections.

And VCU’s loss to William & Mary in the semifinals of a conference it (Colonial) it won by three games in the regular season throws a 24-7 club with a strong resume into the pool of at-large candidates.

Buy into my suggestion, at least for the moment, that these (probable) multi-bid conferences will receive at least these many at-large selections: Big East (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (3), Pac-10 (3), Big Ten (3), SEC (4), WCC (2) and MWC (1) from the 34 that are available.

That would leave just seven bids for a pool of candidates that (excluding the above allotment already conceded, at least temporarily) now includes the likes of Illinois State (MVC runner-up), VCU and South Alabama (who can just sit, watch and keep collective fingers crossed as 6 p.m. ET on Sunday approaches), Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon (Pac-10), Ohio State (Big Ten), New Mexico (MWC), Syracuse and Villanova (Big East), Virginia Tech and Maryland (ACC), Mississippi and Florida (SEC) and Massachusetts (A-10).

And that pool would shrink again if any more “unlikely at-large candidates” win conference tournaments this week.

There is going to be a lot of scoreboard-watching going on this week, even by players and coaches as their teams are trying to pad resumes on the court.

A look at some of the tournaments about to get under way:

MOUNTAIN WEST

At Las Vegas (Wednesday-Saturday)

IN HAND: BYU won the regular-season title by two games and is locked into an at-large bid. So it’s in “enhance our seed” mode. UNLV, barring multiple upsets in other conferences and a quarterfinal exit of its own, should get a bid.

AT STAKE: New Mexico (24-7 overall/11-5 in conference) should be in decent at-large shape, barring a loss to Utah on Thursday. A trek to the conference final would remove any real doubt.

PROJECTED FINAL: UNLV over BYU.

PAC-10

At Los Angeles (Wednesday-Saturday)

IN HAND: UCLA won the regular-season crown by three games and would wrap up the No. 1 seed in the West – if it hasn’t already – by winning Thursday against the winner of the Cal-Washington game Wednesday night. Stanford, Washington State and USC are members of the “to improve our seed” club.

AT STAKE: Even with an 8-10 conference mark, Arizona (with its whopper strength of schedule, and non-conference wins over Texas A&M and UNLV),  probably gets a bid by just beating Oregon State Wednesday night. Knocking off Stanford the next night, of course, takes the Wildcats into lock status. Arizona State (9-9 in conference, including a pair of wins over Arizona and solo victories against Stanford and USC, and a non-conference W vs. Xavier) is a team whose hopes took a big hit with the Monday night shenanigans. But a victory over the Trojans Thursday afternoon takes the Sun Devils off the hook. Oregon (9-9 in conference) won its final three conference games in Eugene but needs to beat Washington State Thursday and maybe even earn a spot in Saturday’s final to feel relatively secure about Sunday.

PROJECTED FINAL: USC over Stanford.

BIG EAST

At New York City (Wednesday-Saturday)

IN HAND: Georgetown, Connecticut, Louisville and Notre Dame will all be 4 or better seeds on Sunday. Marquette, Pittsburgh and West Virginia will get at-large bids, regardless of what happens in Madison Square Garden.

AT STAKE: The noon Villanova-Syracuse opener is an at-large “elimination game”. And the survivor will have to knock off Georgetown on Thursday or face a gut-wrenching wait until Sunday.

PROJECTED FINAL: Connecticut over Louisville.

ATLANTIC 10

At Atlantic City (Wednesday-Saturday)

IN HAND: Xavier might be able to play itself into a 2 seed by winning the tournament. One tourney win (vs. the Charlotte-Rhode Island winner) in a Thursday quarterfinal would be great for Massachusetts but a semifinal win Friday night would remove any remaining doubt.

AT STAKE: Temple and Richmond (both playing well and the tourney’s 2 and 4 seeds) have played themselves into at-large contention. Saint Joseph’s the has best non-conference resume but needs wins over Fordham (Wednesday) and Richmond (Thursday) to get a probable Friday semifinal showdown with Xavier.

PROJECTED FINAL: Saint Joseph’s over Temple.

ACC

At Charlotte (Thursday-Sunday)

IN HAND: North Carolina wraps up the No. 1 seed in the East by, perhaps, advancing to Sunday’s final. Duke is in line for a 2 seed, barring a quarterfinal mishap. Clemson and Miami will get at-large bids, although the Hurricanes could make things a little uneasy for themselves on Sunday if they lose to last-place North Carolina State Thursday.

AT STAKE: Maryland’s tumble to close the regular season (losses to Clemson and Virginia) means the Terps may need to be playing on Sunday to get into the tourney, either by winning it or getting one of the last couple of bids. Virginia Tech lost a solid opportunity by letting the Clemson game slip away Sunday. The Hokies could be facing a must-win against North Carolina scenario in a potential Saturday semifinal.

PROJECTED FINAL: Duke over North Carolina.

BIG 12

At Kansas City (Thursday-Sunday)

IN HAND: Kansas and Texas are solid 2s and one or the other could slide into the top line by winning the conference tourney. Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Kansas State will be in the tournament field, by winning Sunday or getting an at-large bid later than evening.

AT STAKE: No other team gets into the tournament, short of winning Sunday.

PROJECTED FINAL: Kansas over Texas.

BIG TEN

At Indianapolis (Thursday-Sunday)

IN HAND: Wisconsin (regular-season champion), along with Purdue, Indiana and Michigan State, has no at-large anxieties. The Badgers have the best shot at a 2 seed, with Purdue a 3 or 4 and the Hoosiers and Spartans slipping into the 4-6 range.

AT STAKE: Ohio State put itself into solid at-large grounds by knocking off Purdue and Michigan State in Columbus to close the regular season. Another win over the Spartans Friday puts the Buckeyes into the field.

PROJECTED FINAL: Michigan State over Purdue.

SEC

At Atlanta (Thursday-Sunday)

IN HAND: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Mississippi State are tourney locks. And Kentucky, with its 12 conference wins obscuring its 6-7 non-SEC performance, is close enough.

AT STAKE: A quarterfinal win Friday over Mississippi (assuming the Rebels beat Georgia Thursday) removes any doubt about Kentucky and might keep Mississippi out. Florida needs wins over Alabama (Thursday) and Mississippi State (Friday) to put itself over the at-large hump.

PROJECTED FINAL: Tennessee over Mississippi State.

Updated Burlison’s Top 25

(Includes results of March 10; previous rating in parentheses)

1. (1) North Carolina 29-2

Frank Says: The Tar Heels continued to take care of ACC, and national, business Saturday night in Durham.

2. (2) Tennessee 28-3

Frank Says: Just call the Vols “Alias Smith & Smith & Smith”

3. (3) Memphis 30-1

Frank Says: Does anyone make things interesting for the Tigers in the Conference USA Tourney this week? Uh, it’s being held in Memphis: The answer is “No!”

4. (4) UCLA 28-3

Frank Says: The Bruins may have exhausted their quota of “miracle finishes” for the season in Pauley Pavilion last week.

5. (5) Kansas 26-3

Frank Says: It might just be me, but doesn’t it seem as if the Jayhawks traveling a bit under the national radar of late?

6. (7) Texas 24-5

Frank Says: Just a hunch – we’ll see the Longhorns in the Big 12 final vs. Kansas on Sunday.

7. (6) Duke 26-4

Frank Says: Freshman Kyle Singler has connected upon just 18 of 55 field goal-attempts over the past four games.

8. (10) Butler 28-3

Frank Says: The Bulldogs try to take a bite out of Cleveland State’s NCAA hopes in Horizon League final Tuesday night in Indianapolis.

9. (12) Wisconsin 26-4

Frank Says: Only Purdue beat the Badgers in Big Ten play and the Boilermakers wouldn’t pop up until tourney final in Indy Sunday.

10. (8) Stanford 24-6

Frank Says: The Cardinal will need to get to Saturday Pac-10 final to get back into the No. 2 seed hunt.

11. (9) Xavier 26-5

Frank Says: The Musketeers could get back onto the 2 seed line by strolling down Boardwalk Hall and taking A-10 tourney title.

12. (11) Purdue 24-7

Frank Says: Will try to go 3-0 vs. Badgers on Sunday in Indy.

13. (14) Drake 28-4

Frank Says: The Bulldogs take a few days off after ripping through Missouri Valley Conference comp in St. Louis.

14. (16) Georgetown 25-4

Frank Says: Hoyas outlasted Cardinals for Big East’s top tourney seed this week.

15. (17) Louisville 24-7

Frank Says: Rick Pitino’s crew hopes to take another pop at Georgetown Saturday night in Madison Square Garden.

16. (13) Connecticut 24-7

Frank Says: Have I written lately that I believe the Huskies are on a very short list of teams that can get to the Final Four?

17. (18) Notre Dame 24-6

Frank Says: That could be a heck of a “Big East Final Four” Friday night (Irish vs. Louisville, and Georgetown vs. Connecticut, if the seeds hold out) in New York City.

18. (15) Indiana 25-6

Frank Says: The Hoosiers aren’t exactly rolling into the Big Ten Tournament.

19. (22) Washington State 23-7

Frank Says: It took 50 minutes, but the Cougars finally held off their rivals from across the state Saturday night in Pullman.

20. (23) Davidson 26-6

Frank Says: The Wildcats took their NCAA Tournament future out of the hands of the folks who will show up in Indianapolis Wednesday to begin sorting out the tournament field.

21. (20) Vanderbilt 25-6

Frank Says: Shan Foster is knocking in jump shots with considerable rapidity.

22. (ur) BYU 25-6

Frank Says: The Cougars have their spot in the NCAA Tourney locked, regardless of what happens in Las Vegas this week.

23. (ur) Mississippi State 21-9

Frank Says: The Bulldogs are Sweet 16 material.

24. (21) Michigan State 24-7

Frank Says: Back in November, who thought the Spartans would end up as only the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament?

25.  (25) Clemson 22-8

Frank Says: The Tigers saved third place in the ACC with their down-to-the-wire win over Virginia Tech Sunday night.

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Inducted into the USBWA Hall of Fame in April, 2005, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at . Read more of Burlison’s pieces at www.collegehoops.scout.com