The other day I wrote
that the small forward (“three”) position is the deepest in this NBA
Draft.
Uh, given time to reconsider that
stance, I may be changing my perspective.
There sure are a lot of pretty good
power forwards (“fours”), aren’t there?
As many as seven of them – eight if
you want to include Spencer Hawes of Washington, who I am listing with the
centers – are still in the hunt to be lottery selections on June 28.
Let’s take a peek at them, shall
we?
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Easily the
most polished (and many flat out declare the best) of the power forward
prospects in this class. His game is strong, tight and economical and he should
be ready to play 25+ minutes per game – and play them very well – from
Jump Street come November.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: What
could he have done with the Gators if he had been truly shot-hungry? He had
double figures in shots attempts 12 times as a senior, going a nine-game stretch
in which he put up just 55 attempts (clicking on 39).
FRANK SAYS: He made up
one-third of what will one day be rated among the very best frontlines to ever
play on the college level.
WHERE HE GOES: Either No. 3
(Atlanta) or 4 (Memphis).
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He is the
quickest jumping frontcourt prospect in the draft pool, Greg Oden included. He
might also be the best shot blocker who’ll be selected Thursday night – yes,
once more I’m making Oden part of that universe.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: A, How
quickly can he get a substantial increase in his bulk and strength? And, b, how
soon will he expand his offensive repertoire to include something a little
meatier than just follows, dunks after penetrations and dishes, as well as the
old standbys, dunks in transition?
FRANK SAYS: I believe he’ll
eventually become a more effective and productive NBA player than Al Horford.
The only question is: How long does that take?
WHERE HE GOES: No later than
No. 6 (Milwaukee).
Yi Jianlian (7-0, 240, 23,
China)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: His jump
shot (for range and accuracy) is among the most widely admired in this draft.
He’s considered an athlete on par with most of the players with his size already
in the NBA.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: He
supposedly doesn’t want much to do with playing with his back to the basket. And
will he shy away from the physical confrontations involved with being matched
against stronger post players and power forwards?
FRANK SAYS: The only real
game I’ve seen him play was during the 2004 Nike Hoop Summit in San
Antonio, when he had seven points and as many rebounds over 28 minutes during
the International team’s 97-77 to a U.S. high school team that included seven
members who have since played in the NBA.
WHERE HE GOES: No earlier
than No. 5 (Boston) and no later than 10 (Sacramento).
Joakim Noah (*6-10 ½, 223, Jr.,
Florida)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: There are
few (if any) players in this draft pool who play with as much legitimate energy
every moment he’s on the floor. He can impact the outcome of games with that
energy translated into the areas of defense, rebounding and passing – the last
of which is by far the most underrated portion of his repertoire.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Why is
his jump shot so, well, miserable and why hasn’t he become a much more
viable threat as a low-post scorer?
FRANK SAYS: He would have
been in strong consideration to be the No. 1 selection a year ago if he hadn’t
elected to return to Gainesville for his junior season.
WHERE HE GOES: Anywhere from
No. 7 (Minnesota) to 10 (Sacramento).
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He is
probably the best rebounder at this position in the draft pool (Horford
loyalists, feel free to exclaim “No way!” at this point) and could be a
shot-blocker in the undersized, Ben Wallace-mold (he’s closer to 6-8 than the
6-10 he’s listed at by some).
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Will the
off-the-court issues that led to his dismissal at Boston College last season be
avoided when he’s rolling in NBA dollars next season? How quickly can he pick up
offensive skills that weren’t developed or at least utilized in
college?
FRANK SAYS: Speculation is
that there is at least one franchise among the top 10 selections considering
tabbing Williams.
WHERE HE GOES: A very wide
range of possibilities but it’s looking as if he could be someone’s choice in
the lottery.
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Other than
Spencer Hawes, there isn’t a better passing post player in this draft
pool. He has better than advertised explosiveness, both in filling lanes and in
his vertical leaping ability.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Why
didn’t he evolve into a more efficient “scorer” in two years at Duke, both with
his jump shot and his back-to-the-basket moves?
FRANK SAYS: If he does in
fact last until the early 20s, someone is going to get monstrous bang for the
draft buck out of him.
WHERE HE GOES: Late lottery
to late teens.
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He sure
looks the part of an NBA player and he could be as good, athletically, as any
frontcourt prospect in the draft pool. Unlike some of the guys on the list who
will be “converting” to the four spot after being fives in college, Smith played
the position for most of his three seasons with the Rams.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Is he
aggressive/assertive/instinctive enough to enable his physical gifts to
translate into NBA success?
FRANK SAYS: Another of the
prospects who fit into the “if he is that good, why didn’t his college team win
more often?” category.
WHERE HE GOES: He is getting
some Top 10 nibbles but the 16 slot seems where the interest should really begin
to pick up on June 28.
WHAT’S TO LIKE: All of the
physical tools, and many of the basketball skills, are there for him to tap into
and become a quality NBA frontcourt player. His jump shot, especially on the
wings and along the baselines, is a big part of his offensive staple.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: How can
a guy who is that big and gifted shoot only .407 from the field, as he did as a
senior?
FRANK SAYS: He could prove
to be one off the better long-term, second-round investments.
WHERE HE GOES: Top 10
selections in the second round.
Glen Davis (6-8, 295, Jr.,
LSU)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He does
things with the ball, especially off the drive, that very few guys with that
kind of ample girth have ever done before. When he can wedge his body between he
and the ball, he’s an extremely productive offensive player.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Can he
keep his weight below 300 pounds? Can his relative lack of height and vertical
explosiveness be overcome when he’s facing guys who are just as strong, and
taller and more athletic than he is?
FRANK SAYS: If he keeps the
(excessive) weight off, he’ll be an NBA contributor.
WHERE HE GOES: A couple of
teams are considering him late in the first round but he seems more likely to go
early in the second round.
OTHERS LIKELY TO BE DRAFTED
(mostly in the mid-to-late second-round range) include: Carl Landry (*6-7 ¾,
248, Sr., Purdue); Ali Traore (*6-8 ¾, 249, 22, France); Herbert Hill (*6-7 ¾, 232, Sr., Providence); Stephane Lasme (*6-5 ½, 213,
Sr., Massachusetts); Chris Richard (*6-7 ½, 252, Sr., Florida);
Coleman Collins (*6-8, 236, Sr., Virginia Tech); Ekene Ibekwe
(*6-8 ½, 208, Sr., Maryland); Mario Boggan (*6-5 ½, 240, Sr., Oklahoma State).
*Height, without shoes, and weight
at Pre-Draft Camp; others are estimated or what was listed on college
rosters.
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame in April, 2005, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at
frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.frankhoops.com