If not for the agreement between
the NBA Players Association and the league as part of the collective bargaining
agreement two years ago, I’d be writing a lot about O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose
in this column.
But instead of pontificating about
Mayo’s and Rose’s chances of being the first two point guards selected in the
2007 NBA Draft that will be held on June 28, we’ll be able to watch Mayo and
Rose in their only college seasons, toiling for USC and Memphis,
respectively.
I still don’t buy into the
constitutionality – or the morality – of banning 18-year-olds from the ability
to earn a living in the NBA without being one year from removed from their high
school classes’ graduations. But that’s a debate for another time, I
suppose.
So, on to those who are
eligible to be selected on June 28 . . .
Mike Conley, who (with the help of
a few other fellows, one named Greg Oden) led Ohio State to the national title
game as a freshman last spring, is clearly the best of the future NBA point
guards in this draft.
I offer that Acie Law of Texas
A&M is just as clearly the second best prospect, with three players bunched
in a cluster for the right to be called “third best”.
Of course, come June 28, it’s left
to the NBA decision makers to sort out that cluster, and one involving a handful
of potential late first round/early second round possibilities.
Anyway, time to dive in . .
.
Those with the best shots at the
first round:
Mike Conley (*5-11 ¾, 175,
Fr., Ohio State)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: His feel for
the position, composure and decision making, as well as his innate speed and
ability to play at multiple paces equally efficiently, give him clear separation
from all other point guard prospects in this draft pool. He’s one of those
rarities: a “jet” who consistently penetrates with a purpose and under
control.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: How
quickly can he become a competent enough jump shooter (with range) to make
defenders play him honestly?
FRANK SAYS: If his jump shot
can gain league-wide respect, he should ascend to the upper tier of the league’s
playmakers rather rapidly.
WHERE HE GOES: Lottery, most
likely six (Milwaukee) or seven (Minnesota).
Acie Law (*6-2, 186, Sr.,
Texas A&M)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: After
playing four seasons on the college level, he’ll go into his rookie campaign as
the most polished first-year point guard in the NBA. His improvement, leadership
and playmaking ability helped turn the Aggies into an elite-level program. He’s
not quite the speed merchant Conley is but does possess his ability to slip into
different gears to set up and beat opponents off the dribble.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: His
shooting in individual workouts has exceeded expectations but it still has to be
considered the area that will draw the most concern by those considering
investing a lottery selection on him.
FRANK SAYS: Like Conley, if
his jump shot has to be honored by NBA defenders he should move into a starting
lineup rather quickly. But his ceiling for long-term success isn’t quite as high
as his Ohio State counterpart’s.
WHERE HE GOES: Assuming
Atlanta doesn’t trade its No.’s 3 and 11 first-round selection and it doesn’t
choose Conley with its top choice, it’s hard to envision Law still being on the
board at No. 12.
Rodney Stuckey (*6-3 ¾, 207,
So., Eastern Washington)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Physically,
there isn’t a stronger or sturdier backcourt prospect in the draft pool this
year. He’s deceptively quick and can readily beat opponents off the dribble
going left or right with equal aplomb. He almost always turned in exceptional
performances against the best of the Eagles’ non-conference (USC, Washington,
etc.) competition during the past two seasons
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: As
gifted as he is, why couldn’t he lead his team to more than 15 wins in either of
his two college seasons?
FRANK SAYS: NBA talent
evaluators are nearly divided in projecting him as a point or shooting (there
are question’s about the consistency of his jump shot) guard. We’re opting to
drop him into the point guard slot.
WHERE HE GOES: It’s hard to
envision scenarios in which he’s picked before 15 (Detroit) or after 20
(Miami).
Javaris Crittenton (*6-3,
194, Fr., Georgia Tech)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Fans of
Stuckey would differ but Crittenton is the most explosive (and aggressive)
scorer at the position this season. He’s not quite as strong as Stuckey but is a
tick quicker and, at approximately two years younger than Stuckey, may deserve
the nod in the “upside” department.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Is he
more “scorer” than “true” point guard? He struggled in a combined four games
against Duke and North Carolina, going 15 of 45 from the floor and had more
turnovers (24) than assists (23).
FRANK SAYS: Another year in
college could have put him into position to challenge Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo
to be the first point guard-type chosen in the 2008 draft.
WHERE HE GOES: Could go as
early as 14 (Clippers) but could slip into the early 20s as well.
Gabe Pruitt (6-4, 175, Jr.,
USC)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Demonstrated
immense progress from season to season to season (he was ineligible the first
semester as a junior) with the Trojans. Some project as a “two guard” and he,
like Stuckey and Crittenton, are probably more “combo” than “true” points or
twos. He shoots it deep with solid accuracy, off the pass or dribble, and is a
vastly improved playmaker/decision maker. He can elevate over the top of
defenders about as well as any jump shooter in this draft.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: He’s
still awfully wiry and tends to have difficulty finishing in traffic when
defenders get into his body. Like Crittenton, he is still more instinctive
“scorer” than “playmaker”.
FRANK SAYS: Like another
projected first-round choice Nick Young, Pruitt eventually flourished under the
guidance of USC Coach Tim Floyd.
WHERE HE GOES: Late teens
with 21 (Philadelphia) a reasonable stopping off point for him.
Aaron Brooks (*5-10 ½, 161,
Sr., Oregon)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Top of the
circle to top of the circle, he’s easily the fastest player in the draft and
comparable to any of the speediest players in the NBA. Very few defenders were
able to contain him off the dribble in college. He’s got a quick release on his
jumper, coupled with impressive range and accuracy. No defender would dare go
under a screen when he’s running pick-and-roll.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: He’s
borderline “tiny” and still has a tendency to penetrate without a purpose,
getting himself into trouble when he’s stuck in traffic with no where to pass or
no way to finish at the rim.
FRANK SAYS: He’s another
player who draws extreme evaluations. But his offensive tools – and all of that
quickness – will encourage someone to overlook his lack of size/strength and
sometimes-iffy decision making and make him a (relatively) early
selection.
WHERE HE GOES: Someone
looking for a backup point guard (Phoenix, at 29?) could roll the dice late in
the first round but it is more likely he will be one of the first five or so
selections in Round 2.
Taurean Green (*5-11 ¾, 173,
Jr., Florida)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: Was the
floor leader on consecutive national championship team, distributing the ball
nicely to a bunch of gifted teammates yet showing he was capable of creating
offense for himself via penetration or his jump shot.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Despite
his (lack of) size, he’s not a blazer and struggled to stay in front of quick
point guards at times last season and during the Pre-Draft Camp.
FRANK SAYS: It would have
been interesting to watch him play as a senior for the Gators when he would have
been asked to do a few more things as a scorer and playmaker.
WHERE HE GOES: There has
been some first-round selection talk but, like Brooks, it seems more likely that
he will be chosen somewhere in the upper portion of the second round.
Ramon Sessions (*6-2, 185,
Jr., Nevada)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He’s a “no
ifs, ands, or buts about it point guard” who has operated under the radar as
Mark Fox’s starting playmaker while Nick Fazekas and Marcelus Kemp have garnered
the majority of the regional and national hype. During the Orlando Pre-Draft
Camp he went from “barely on the radar” to “Hey, who is that guy?” in the eyes
of many decision makers.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Some
evaluators think he has just so-so quickness and don’t think he is an
exceptional shooter. He hit just 33 percent of his shots over the team’s final
six games.
FRANK SAYS: There was no
better example of a player who helped his stock considerably during his trek to
the Pre-Draft Camp. But would definitely have a better shot at being a
first-round selection if he returns to Reno for another season.
WHERE HE GOES: There is some
interest by a few franchises late in the first round but early to mid-second
round is the more likely destination if he stays in the draft pool.
Jared Jordan (*6-0, 183,
Sr., Marist)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: His vision,
handle and ability to get the ball to open shooters is rivaled by only Conley in
this draft. And his understanding of the point guard position might be second to
none in this class. He made a lot of converts at the Pre-Draft Camp.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: Here’s
what even some of those who are fans of his are concerned about – a lack of
enough lateral quickness to stay in front of even the most plodding of NBA point
guards and an uninspiring jump shot.
FRANK SAYS: Those
comparisons to Steve Nash would be a lot more plausible if he had anything
approaching Nash’s athletic ability and jump shot.
WHERE HE GOES: Possibly very
early in the second round and no later than the middle of the second
round.
Petteri Koponen (6-4, 194,
19, Finland)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He has the
savvy/know how to run a team, and the ability to knock in jumpers or beat
opponents off the dribble, that many evaluators believe will ultimately
translate to NBA success.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: He’s
awfully young and a few scouts think he is still more of a shooter/scorer than
pure playmaker.
FRANK SAYS: A lot of people
really like him and others are trying to hide how much they appreciate his
potential.
WHERE HE GOES: If he doesn’t
withdraw from the draft pool, he could sneak into the first round but would
appear a more likely early-second round selection.
Zabian Dowdell (*6-1 ½, 191,
Sr., Virginia Tech)
WHAT’S TO LIKE: He’s strong,
clever and nearly fearless and was one of the best (and certainly most
underrated) players in one of two or three best conferences (the ACC) in the
country over the past two seasons. Gets into the lane with relative ease and
usually makes sound passing or shooting decisions.
YOU HAVE TO WONDER: He
wasn’t a full-time “point guard”, per se, in college while sharing playmaking
duties with Jamon Gordon. He only had three assists (and 10 turnovers) over his
final three games
FRANK SAYS: He would appear
to be a prime candidate for a year in the Development League to polish his
playmaking skills.
WHERE HE GOES: Mid- to
late-second round.
OTHERS WHO COULD BE
DRAFTED (more likely in the mid-to-late range in the second round): Jamaal Tatum (*5-11 ½, 168, Sr., Southern Illinois);
Brandon Heath (*6-2, 181, Sr., San Diego State); Mustafa Shakur (*6-3,
185, Sr., Arizona); Sean Singletary
(*5-11, 180, Jr., Virginia); DaShaun Wood (*5-10 ¾, 170, Sr., Wright State); Sammy Mejia (*6-5 ½, 218, Sr., DePaul); Bobby Brown (*5-11 ¾, 170, Sr., Cal State
Fullerton).
*Height, without shoes, and weight
at Pre-Draft Camp; others are estimated or what was listed on college rosters.
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame in April, 2005, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at
frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.frankhoops.com