There are going to be a number of
college basketball teams and their coaches enduring some serious stomach
churning over the next couple of days.
Here’s a look at some in the group
of 34 (the at-large picks) that will be heaving a collective sigh of relief
early evening on Selection Sunday – as well of those who are facing impending
disappointment at the very same time.
THEY SHOULD BE IN GOOD
SHAPE
*Georgia
Tech
Frank Says: That “just one
victory on an opponent’s (Florida State) home floor” is mildly distressing. But
that did come against an ACC foe that is also considered a “bubble” team. And
the Yellow Jackets did beat Memphis (a possible No. 2 seed) in Maui in December.
Couple that with a .500 record within ACC play, including back-to-back victories
over North Carolina and Boston College, and the selection and seeding folks in
Indianapolis shouldn’t frown too harshly on that 114-112 double-overtime loss to
Wake Forest in St. Petersburg on Thursday.
*Stanford
Frank Says: The 18-12
overall record doesn’t knock one for a loop. And the Cardinal dropped four of
the past five games, including the 83-79, overtime-loss to USC in the Pac-10
Tourney Thursday evening. And there are ugly home losses to Air Force (by 34
points on Nov. 15) and Santa Clara (by 16 on Dec. 16) on the books, too. Now,
the selling points: Coach Trent Johnson’s team was 10-8 in one of the two
toughest conferences in the country, including victories over UCLA, Oregon,
Washington State and USC. And there are non-conferences wins against ACC
co-champion Virginia (in Charlottesville) and against tourney-bound Texas Tech.
Barring some stunning upsets this weekend, look for Stanford to grab one of the
34 bids.
*Syracuse
Frank Says: The Orange could
have erased any doubt Thursday against Notre Dame in Madison Square Garden
(losing 89-83). But Coach Jim Boeheim’s team has more than enough going
for in with its 11 regular-season Big East wins, including decisions over
Marquette and Georgetown. Closing strong (six wins over the final eight
regular-season games helps, too). Demetris Nichols and his buddies should
be pleased with what they see on the TV screen Sunday night.
TOO CLOSE TO
CALL
*Drexel
Frank Says: Road wins
against Villanova, Syracuse and Creighton are attention grabbing. But the
Dragons finished in fourth place in the Colonial Conference. And, although we
are told constantly that at-large candidates are “competing against the entire
at-large pool, not specifically against fellow conference members”, how much
losing twice to another at-large seeking Colonial team, Old Dominion, impact the
committee’s thinking?
*Missouri
State
Frank Says: The Bears should
be rightfully proud of that November win against Wisconsin win. But batting
0-for-5 against fellow Missouri Valley teams Southern Illinois and Creighton
doesn’t help the resume, especially with a 12-6 conference record and an
11-point home loss to Winthrop in the Bracket Buster event.
*Old
Dominion
Frank Says: The overall
record is 25-8 and one of those wins came at Georgetown. But the bulk of the
“impressive” victories came against fellow Colonial Conference teams
(specifically, regular-season and tourney winner VCU, along with
Drexel).
*Appalachian
State
Frank Says: Wins against
Virginia, Vanderbilt and VCU are part of a strong case. Three road losses to ACC
team by average margins of 24 points don’t help, though. And how much weight
will a 15-3 regular-season record in the Southern Conference carry?
IT’S NOT LOOKING
GOOD
*Air
Force:
Frank Says: Back in November
the Falcons were, very arguably, one of the 12 to 15 best teams in the country,
with impressive wins over eventual Big West Conference champion Long Beach
State, as well as those at Stanford and Santa Clara, and others against Texas
Tech and Wake Forest. But they lost six times in Mountain West Conference play
(finishing tied for third with San Diego State), and have dropped four games in
a row. And the last of those came to a Wyoming team (Thursday, during the MWC
tournament in Las Vegas) that they beat by 45 points on Feb. 3. My hunch:
They’re going to be in the NIT.
*West Virginia
Frank Says: The 9-7 record
in the Big East was solid, on the face of it. But only one of those wins
(against Villanova) came at the expense of a probable NCAA tourney-bound club.
The biggest victory of the season, by far, came against a UCLA team that was
playing without one of its two best players (point guard Darren Collison). Had the Mountaineers pulled out that game against Louisville in
New York City Thursday, I might have pushed this team into the “34”
category.
*Florida
State
Frank Says: The Seminoles
have one of the best players in the country in forward Al Thornton, a
lock choice to be a first-round selection in the next NBA Draft, and beat
national champion Florida on Dec. 3. But Coach Leonard Hamilton’s team
hasn’t beaten a likely NCAA tournament-bound team (among four such victories)
since knocking off Duke in Durham on Feb. 4. I think the Seminoles could be
joining Air Force in the NIT.
*Michigan
Frank Says: I see no real
compelling reason why the Wolverines should be in the tournament over some other
candidates who are also far from cinches. There were only two victories (against
Miami of Ohio and Northwestern) on opponents’ home floors. There are wins
against very likely NCAA teams Purdue, Michigan State and Indiana, as well
another possible tourney-bound team in Illinois. And a non-conference win over
Davidson has to be filed in the “impressive category”. Does Tommy Amaker
keep his job with yet another NCAA Tournament miss?
*Massachusetts
Frank Says: You’ve got to
admire the toughness of the team’s non-conference slate (games at Pittsburgh,
Kentucky and Louisville, and at home against Boston College). And the Minutemen
won nine of their final 10 regular-season Atlantic 10 games. But, in a season
when the A 10 isn’t getting a lot of national respect, could that conference
loss to Saint Louis on Thursday cost Travis Ford’s team an NCAA bid? I’m
inclined to say yes.
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame in April, 2005, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at
frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.frankhoops.com