Welcome to NBA Draft Projection
Time . . .
And please consider this promise
I’ll make: You’ll be less likely to “mock” this first projection of June 28’s
first round than you will my next one, post the June 6-10 Pre-Draft Camp in
Orlando,
Fla.
And, hopefully, after the draft
itself, you’ll say to yourself “Gee, he had a little bit of a clue, didn’t
he?”
Or at least something like that . .
.
Frankhoops.com Mock
I
1. Raptors, LaMarcus Aldridge (6-10,
Texas)
Frank Says: For now let’s go with a “safe” choice as
Aldridge, despite his relatively wiry frame and sometimes passive nature, is the
closest thing to a ready-to-play “center-type” in the draft pool. All of the
next three players are possibilities. And don’t discount a trade for multiple
picks or a proven player and a high pick (perhaps even in next year’s
draft).
2. Bulls, Tyrus Thomas (6-8,
LSU)
Frank Says: This seems the safest choice in the Top 10,
assuming Toronto hasn’t taken Thomas. If you’re really sold
on him, you’ll call him an Amare Stoudemire-type prospect. If you’re not
quite as inspired, you’ll call him an Hakim Warrick-type
prospect.
3. Bobcats, Andrea Bargnani (6-11,
Italy)
Frank Says: The consensus is he that he doesn’t last
beyond the three spot. Based on his reputation, he’s hard to believe he will not
prove to be a better NBA player than a couple of well-known “next Dirk Nowitzki-types” who came out of Europe recently. But it’s also difficult to believe
that he will be nearly as good as the real deal turned out to be for
Dallas.
4. Trail Blazers, Adam Morrison (6-8,
Gonzaga)
Frank Says:
Portland can’t let this guy slip past this spot.
Well, maybe so, if the decision makers for Portland decide Roy is too good and too polished to leave on the
board.
5. Hawks, Brandon Roy (6-5,
Washington)
Frank Says: Forget “point guard”, “shooting guard” or
“wing guard” tags. He is the best “guard”, period, available. If
Atlanta passes on him, the Hawks could be setting
themselves up for bypassing a future Rookie of the Year two years
running.
6. Timberwolves, Rudy Gay (6-7 ½,
Connecticut)
Frank Says: Is he the most “talented” player available?
Sure, I suppose so, in the classic sense of talent as most think it relates to
basketball. But playing hard and consistently, game in and game out, is also a
“talent”, as well. And that’s why he’s likely to be available at No.
6.
7. Celtics, Marcus Williams (6-3,
Connecticut)
Frank Says: He doesn’t have blinding quickness, is almost
a set shooter at times, isn’t an inspiring defender and doesn’t go right much.
That being said . . . he’s the best playmaker in the draft and will be picked by
the first franchise that feels it must draft a “point guard”. The guess here is
that it will be the Celtics.
8. Rockets, Shelden Williams (6-8,
Duke)
Frank Says: He’s considered by some to be limited,
offensively and athletically. So was another for Blue Devils’ power forward
named Carlos Boozer, who lasted until the second round in 2002. Live and
learn, guys.
9. Warriors, Rodney Carney (6-7,
Memphis)
Frank Says: If your notion of the best basketball athlete
is of the guy who is the fastest and can jump the highest and quickest . . .
here’s the best athlete in the draft.
10. Sonics, Randy Foye (6-3,
Villanova)
Frank Says: How pumped would
Seattle be to have a Top Five pick so that they
could pick you-know-who from the University of Washington? Oh, well. They can probably get the
next-best-thing to Brandon Roy at this spot.
11. Magic, J.J. Redick (6-4,
Duke)
Frank Says: The feeling seems to be that
Orlando needs a jump shooter. And another feeling is
that the John R. Wooden Award winner (2006) and runner-up (2005) is the best of
the jump-shooting bunch.
12. Hornets, Hilton Armstrong (6-11,
Connecticut)
Frank Says: How much did his stock climb last season and
how much will it continue to climb until David Stern starts shaking hands
on draft night? Oh my goodness . . .
13. 76ers, Rajon Rondo (6-1,
Kentucky)
Frank Says: If he was anything approaching an average
jump shooter and free-throw shooter, he could go as early as No. 5. But he
isn’t, which is why he might still be available a few picks beyond this
one.
14. Jazz, Patrick O’Bryant (7-0,
Bradley)
Frank Says: Everything about him spelled “project” –
until he went for 44 points and 31 rebounds in NCAA Tournament games with
Kansas, Pittsburgh and Memphis. Suddenly, the project didn’t look as “long
term”.
15. Hornets, Shawne Williams (6-8,
Memphis)
Frank Says: Some NBA talent evaluators like him better
than teammate Rodney Carney.
16. Bulls, Maurice Ager (6-4 ½,
Michigan
State)
Frank Says: He’s a pretty good athlete and a very good
scorer. And the longer I think about it, the more I think I’m undervaluing him
at 16.
17. Pacers, Shannon Brown (6-3,
Michigan
State)
Frank Says: He’s a bit undersized as a two guard-type but
he gets the kind of lift while shooting that renders a guy’s size
moot.
18. Wizards, Ronnie Brewer (6-6 ½,
Arkansas)
Frank Says: He’s one of the most versatile players in the
draft and will likely play all over the perimeter.
19. Kings, Tiago Splitter (7-0,
Brazil)
Frank Says: Some think he’s a Top 10 talent but contract
(he plays in Spain) buy issues could keep him in
Europe for a while.
20. Knicks, Cedric Simmons (6-9,
North Carolina
State)
Frank Says: He had some eye-popping performances (most
notably against Shelden Williams and Duke in Durham). His offensive skills are almost sushi-like
(raw) right now.
21. Suns, Mardy Collins (6-5,
Temple)
Frank Says: I’m not buying this point guard talk. But
he’s strong, tough, versatile and a better shooter than his percentages (.596
from the free-throw line, .432 from the field and .307 on 3’s) would lead us to
believe.
22. Nets, Kyle Lowry (6-0,
Villanova)
Frank Says: If he’s still around,
New
Jersey
would probably opt for him over Jordan Farmar
(UCLA).
23. Nets, Aaron Gray (7-0,
Pittsburgh)
Frank Says: This spot could be almost any “big”,
including any of those to come later in this mock first
round.
24. Grizzlies, Dee Brown (5-11,
Illinois)
Frank Says: He’s been very impressive in workouts and
seems to be playing his way into the first round.
25. Cavaliers, Paul Davis (6-10,
Michigan
State)
Frank Says: A much better athlete and much more polished
offensive player than he’s been given credit for in some circles.
26. Lakers, Guillermo Diaz (6-2 ½,
Miami)
Frank Says: A marvelous athlete and explosive
scorer.
27. Suns, Mouhamed Saer Sene (7-0,
Senegal)
Frank Says: Is he better than Patrick O’Bryant somewhere
down the road? Maybe.
28. Mavericks, Josh Boone (6-9,
Connecticut)
Frank Says: This is going to be all about his individual
workouts and his performance in Orlando (if he goes to the Pre-Draft Camp, that
is).
29. Knicks, Quincy Douby (6-3,
Rutgers)
Frank Says: He’s another player of the “undersized
scoring guards”, a la Guillermo Diaz and Shannon Brown. He’s not the
driver/slasher they are, though.
30. Trail Blazers, Leon Powe (6-7,
Cal)
Frank Says: Even if he is closer to 6-6 than he is the
6-7 I’m putting him at or the 6-8 he was listed at in the
Cal media guide, it’s difficult to believe a
player as relentless, strong and explosive as he is will not be nabbed in the
first round.
Other first-round possibilities
include: James Augustine (6-9,
Illinois); Mike Gansey (6-4, West Virginia); P.J. Tucker (6-5,
Texas); Paul Millsap (6-7, Louisiana Tech); Nick Fazekas (6-11,
Nevada); Rudy Fernandez (6-4, Spain); Jordan Farmar (6-2, UCLA);
James White (6-6, Cincinnati); Marcus de Souza (6-10, Brazil);
Olexsiy Pecherov (6-9, Ukraine); Ryan Hollins
(7-0).
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame in April, 2005, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at
frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.frankhoops.com