On paper, Memphis has the clearest path to
Indianapolis of any of the four No.
1 seeds going into this week’s Sweet 16 semifinal play of the NCAA
Tournament.
The 32-3 Tigers, who beat Oral
Roberts and Bucknell by 18 and 16 points, respectively, in first- and
second-round games in Dallas, are in an Oakland region in which they’ve already
beaten the 2 (UCLA, 88-80, on Nov. 23 in New York City) and 3 (Gonzaga, 83-72,
on Dec. 27 in Memphis) seeds.
And, in the place of the region’s 4
(Kansas) or 5 (Pittsburgh) seeds, both of which were projected by many to beat
the Tigers in a Sweet 16 matchup, Thursday Coach John Calipari’s team
will take on a 13 seed in Bradley that came into the tournament with 10
losses.
But here’s the beauty of
basketball: Way back when Dr. James Naismith invented the sport, he
dictated that it be played on a gymnasium floor and not on paper.
UCLA’s Bruins, by all accounts, are
a considerable better team now than they were on that night in
Madison
Square
Garden.
Since dropping that decision in
Memphis two nights after Christmas,
the Adam Morrison-led Bulldogs haven’t lost, running off a nation’s best
20-win streak.
And Bradley has won 13 of its past
15 games, with four of those victories coming against teams in the NCAA
Tournament – including the aforementioned
Kansas (77-73) and
Pittsburgh (72-66)
squads.
So that should dash any thinking
that the Tigers will have a clear (and relatively easy) trek to the Final
Four.
The other two Thursday semifinals
will be played in Atlanta, with the top overall seed Duke taking on Southeastern
Conference regular-season champion LSU, followed by a game between the region’s
2 (Texas) and 6 (West Virginia) seeds.
CBS has staggered the starting
times of the Duke-LSU and Gonzaga-UCLA games, with the majority of the viewing
markets having those as their two “primary” games.
Gee, do you think the fact that
J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison are playing in those games has
anything to do with it?
A closer look at Thursday’s
semifinals:
ATLANTA
REGION
Scout.com All-Americas: J.J.
Redick and Shelden Williams (both Duke, both first team); Glen Davis (LSU, third team); P.J. Tucker
(Texas, second team); Mike Gansey (West Virginia, third
team).
Projected 2006 NBA Draft
first-round selections: (if underclassmen enter draft pool) J.J. Redick,
Shelden Williams and Josh McRoberts (all Duke); Tyrus Thomas
(LSU); LaMarcus Aldridge and Daniel Gibson (both
Texas); Mike Gansey
(West Virginia).
Scout.com preseason ratings:
Duke (1); Texas (5);
West Virginia (18); LSU
(unrated).
Records vs. NCAA Tournament
field: Duke (13-2); LSU (9-6);
Texas (11-5);
West Virginia
(9-7).
The
games:
All times
Eastern
No. 1 Duke (32-3) vs. No. 4 LSU
(25-8), 7:10
p.m.
Things to consider: The Blue
Devils played teams (Southern and George Washington) in the first two rounds
that tried to spread the court, drive on the Duke defenders and play a fast
tempo. The Tigers will probably (to some extent) follow that strategy but have a
much stronger presence in the lane, with a frontcourt of SEC Player of the
Year Glen Davis, as well as Tyrus Thomas and Tasmin Mitchell. The later player, a 6-7 freshman, could cause problems when
matched up with shorter defenders (J.J. Redick or DeMarcus Nelson)
but Davis and Thomas aren’t very likely to outplay Shelden Williams and
Josh McRoberts. And the Tigers’ transition defense will have to be a lot
better than it was against Iona and Texas A&M to keep
the Blue Devils from getting numerous easy scores. Oh, yes: LSU will also have
to keep Redick from getting the ball easily and getting too many clean looks at
the rim. Good luck.
Frank’s Spin: Duke moves
another step closer to Indy.
No. 2
Texas (29-6) vs. No.
6 West Virginia
(22-10), 9:40 p.m.
(est.)
Things to consider: When the
teams met in Kansas City on Nov. 21 (with the Longhorns winning, 76-75), the
Mountaineers led most of the way in large part because Mike Gansey (28
points and three steals) had a sensational game and West Virginia’s defense
(1-3-1) forced 24 Texas turnovers. The Longhorns, who have since made Kenton Paulino their primary ball-handler, would seem better equipped to cope with
John Beilein’s defense after having played 40 minutes against it. The
Mountaineers will need a lot more than a bunch of 3-pointers to beat
Texas, which now relies frequently
on a zone. If they can score over (or, more likely, around) shot-blocker
LaMarcus Aldridge, they could reverse that Kansas
City decision.
Frank’s Spin: Assuming they
trim their turnovers, considerably, from the first meeting, the Longhorns, with
Aldridge, P.J. Tucker and
Brad Buckman, have too much post firepower for the Mountaineers.
Texas moves on to a Saturday clash
with Duke.
OAKLAND
REGION
Scout.com All-Americas: Rodney Carney (Memphis, second team);
Adam Morrison (Gonzaga, first team); Arron Afflalo (UCLA, fourth
team).
Projected 2006 NBA Draft
first-round selections: (if underclassmen enter draft pool) Rodney
Carney and Shawne Williams (both
Memphis); Adam Morrison
(Gonzaga); Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley).
Scout.com preseason ratings:
Gonzaga (4); UCLA (25); Memphis
(“just misses”); Bradley (unrated).
Records vs. NCAA Tournament
field: Memphis (10-3); Bradley
(6-4); UCLA (9-5); Gonzaga (3-3).
The
games:
All times
Eastern
No. 1
Memphis (32-3) vs. No.
13 Bradley (22-10), 7:27
p.m.
Things to consider: Patrick
O’Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville, with Zach Andrews and
Lawrence Wright coming off the bench, make up the best frontcourt the
Tigers have faced since losing to Texas on Jan. 2. John Calipari will likely use
Joey Dorsey and Kareem Cooper to take turns to try to wear on the
7-foot O’Bryant in an attempt to keep him from setting up too deep into the
post. The Braves want to run but aren’t as adept at it as are the Tigers.
Bradley’s defensive game plan will probably focus on trying to keep Darius Washington, Antonio Anderson and Andre Allen from penetrating and
getting into the lane and scoring or dishing to all of the
Memphis “finishers” (especially Rodney Carney
and Shawne Williams)
Frank’s Spin: With the assumption being
that the Braves can play as well defensively as they did in the first and second
rounds, and that O’Bryant can have the same impact he did against
Pittsburgh, Bradley will be the team moving a step closer
to Indianapolis.
No. 2 UCLA (29-6) vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
(29-3), 9:57 p.m. (est).
Things to consider: The Bulldogs demonstrated, in beating
Indiana Saturday (90-80), that their offensive
firepower extends well beyond Adam Morrison and J.P. Batista. And
the Bruins, through patience on the offensive end, and the stoutest half-court
defense Gonzaga will have faced this season, will limit the number of quality
shots Morrison and Batista will have. If the Bulldogs are to still be playing
Saturday, it will be because they have turned in their most solid defensive
performance of the season (especially in not allowing Arron Afflalo and
Jordan Farmar too many open jump shots), and kept UCLA’s quicker and
deeper frontline from dominating play under the
backboards.
Frank’s Spin: With the play of senior Cedric Bozeman
being the “X” factor (in terms of defending Morrison, scoring and passing), the
Bruins are the team to hit the 30-win mark.
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame last April, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached
at frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.frankhoops.com