A little more than 24 hours after
the release of the NCAA Tournament pairings, I remain resolute in my belief that
Duke, UCLA, Connecticut and
Boston
College will represent their
respective regions when the Final Four semifinals are played in
Indianapolis on April 1.
Of course, I reserve the right to
hedge on those picks if any of the aforementioned foursome looks a little wobbly
over the first couple of rounds of play.
That’s what NCAA Tournament
prognostication is all about: making projections and feeling about them from
round to round . . . or improvising on the fly.
The game-by-game analysis will come
soon enough. But for now here are overviews of the fields in the
Atlanta,
Oakland,
Washington, D.C. and
Minneapolis regions:
ATLANTA
(March
23-25)
Top four seeds: 1. Duke; 2.
Texas; 3.
Iowa; 4. LSU.
The “hot” teams: Duke (won ACC
Tournament); Iowa (won Big Ten
Tournament); Syracuse (won Big East
Tournament); Southern Illinois (won MVC Tournament); LSU
(seven wins in last eight SEC games); Texas A&M (eight wins in last nine Big
12 games).
The “not-so hot” teams:
West Virginia (five losses in
last seven Big East games); North Carolina State (four
consecutive ACC losses).
Coolest opening-round game:
West Virginia vs.
Southern Illinois (Friday, Auburn Hills). The
Mountaineers try to spread out and beat one of the best defenses in the
tournament.
Upset City/opening round: No. 11
Southern Illinois over No. 6 West Virginia (Friday, Auburn Hills).
Coach whose stock should rise: Chris Lowery
(Southern Illinois).
All-Region team: Shelden Williams and
J.J. Redick (Duke), P.J. Tucker (Texas), Glen Davis (LSU) and Leon Powe (Cal).
The best first-round individual matchups:
Gerry McNamara vs. Acie Law
(Syracuse vs. Texas A&M,
Thursday, Jacksonville).
Selection Committee’s sense of
irony: California vs. North Carolina State (Friday, Dallas). It’s a rematch up teams that played in the
first round in 2003, with then-freshman guard Richard Midgely hitting a 3-pointer to
give the Golden Bears a 76-74 overtime
victory.
Sweet 16 field: Duke vs. LSU,
Iowa vs.
Texas.
Heading to Indy: Duke (over
Iowa).
OAKLAND
(March
23-35)
Top four seeds: 1.
Memphis; 2. UCLA: 3. Gonzaga; 4.
Kansas.
The “hot teams”: Memphis (19 wins in
past 20 games; won Conference USA Tournament)); UCLA (seven Pac 10 wins in a row
by average margin of 18 points; won Pac 10 Tournament); Gonzaga (18 wins in a
row; won WCC Tournament); Kansas (15 wins in 16 games, Big 12 Tournament
winner); Indiana (five wins in past six Big Ten games); Xavier (won Atlantic 10
Tournament); San Diego State (eight wins in past nine games and won MWC
Tournament); Bucknell (17 wins in past 18 games, including Patriot Conference
Tournament title).
The “not-so hot teams:
Alabama (four losses in past
seven SEC games); Pittsburgh (.500
in past eight Big East games).
Coolest opening-round game: Bucknell
vs. Arkansas (Friday,
Dallas). A win over the Hogs would
be much less an “upset” than its win over
Kansas was a year ago.
Upset City/opening round: No. 9
Bucknell over No. 8 Arkansas (Friday,
Dallas).
Coach whose stock should rise: Pat
Flannery (Bucknell).
All-Region team: Rodney Carney
(Memphis), Adam Morrison (Gonzaga), Arron Afflalo (UCLA), Aaron Gray (Pittsburgh) and Ronald Steele
(Alabama).
The best first-round individual matchup:
Dominic James vs. Ronald Steele
(Marquette vs.
Alabama, Thursday,
San Diego).
Selection Committee’s sense of irony:
UCLA vs. Belmont (Thursday,
San Diego). What’s brewin’? It’s the
Bruins vs. the Bruins.
Sweet 16 field:
Memphis vs.
Pittsburgh, UCLA vs.
Gonzaga.
Heading to Indy: UCLA (over
Pittsburgh).
WASHINGTON, D.C
(March
24-26)
Top four seeds: 1.
Connecticut; 2.
Tennessee; 3.
North Carolina; 4.
Illinois.
The “hot teams”:
North Carolina (11 wins in
past 13 games); Washington (eight wins in past nine Pac 10 games); UAB (eight
wins in past nine Conference
USA
games).
The “not-so hot teams”:
Tennessee (four losses in past
six SEC games); Michigan
State (six losses in past 10 Big Ten
games); Kentucky (.500 in past 12
SEC games); Seton Hall (five losses in past eight Big East games).
Coolest opening-round game: Air Force
vs. Illinois (Thursday,
San Diego). The Falcons get a game
against a Big Ten power to demonstrate to all the non-believers why they
deserved that precious at-large bid.
Upset City/opening round: No. 12 Utah State over No. 5 Washington (Thursday, San
Diego).
Coach whose stock should rise: Mark Turgeon
(Wichita
State).
All-Region team: Marcus Williams
(Connecticut), Brandon Roy
(Washington), Tyler Hansbrough
(North Carolina), Chris Lofton
(Tennessee) and Maurice Ager
(Michigan State).
Best first-round individual matchup: Brian Randle vs. Dan Nwaelele
(Illinois vs. Air Force, Thursday,
San Diego).
Selection Committee’s sense of irony:
Kentucky vs. UAB (Friday,
Philadelphia). The Wildcats were
upset by the Blazers, 76-75, in a second-round game two years
ago.
Sweet 16 field:
Connecticut vs.
Illlinois,
Michigan State vs.
Wichita
State.
Heading to Indy:
Connecticut (over
Michigan
State).
MINNEAPOLIS
(March
24-26)
Top four seeds: 1. Villanova; 2.
Ohio
State; 3.
Florida; 4.
Boston
College.
The “hot teams”: Villanova (14 wins in
past 16 Big East games); Ohio State (11 wins in past 13 Big Ten games); Florida
(Five wins in a row, including SEC Tournament title); Boston College (15 wins in
past 18 games); Nevada (14 wins in a row, including WAC Tournament title);
Montana (seven wins in past eight games, including Big Sky Tournament
championship).
The “not-so hot teams:
Georgetown (five losses in past
nine Big East games); Wisconsin
(four losses in past five Big Ten games); Northern Iowa
(five losses in past seven MVC games).
Coolest opening-round game:
Boston
College vs. Pacific (Thursday,
Salt Lake City). The Tigers attempt
to collect a first-round “upset” for the third year in a row, this time against
a team many are projecting to get to the Final Four.
Upset City/opening round: No. 10
Northern Iowa over No. 7 Georgetown (Friday,
Dayton).
Coach whose stock should rise: Greg
McDermott (Northern Iowa).
All-Region team: Randy Foye
(Villanova), Terence Dials (Ohio
State), Craig Smith (Boston
College), Nick Fazekas (Nevada) and
Allan Ray
(Villanova).
Best first-round individual matchup: Hassan Adams vs. Alando Tucker
(Arizona vs.
Wisconsin, Friday,
Philadelphia).
Selection Committee’s sense of
irony: Florida vs. South Alabama (Thursday, Jacksonville). South Alabama coach John Pelphrey is a former Gators' assistant coach.
Sweet 16 field: Villanova vs.
Boston College,
Ohio State vs.
Florida.
Heading to Indy:
Boston
College (over
Florida).
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame last April, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach
(Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be
reached at frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.collegehoops.scout.com